Where is West Nile virus this year?

If it seems you're hearing less about West Nile virus (WNV) this summer, you may not be imagining it.  Although mosquitoes have been abundant in north Texas this year, for some reason the virus has remained relatively quiet.

Where has WNV gone?

A paper written by epidemiologist Dr. Wendy Chung and colleagues in 2013 may offer some insights on the absence of the virus this summer. Those of us who lived in Dallas in 2012 may remember that summer as the worst human outbreak of WNV ever.  Nearly 400 cases were reported in Dallas County alone, and 19 people died of the disease. The epidemic was so bad that Dallas county resorted to spraying the entire county for mosquitoes by plane--something not seen in north Texas since an encephalitis outbreak in 1966.

Chung and colleagues charted the course of the disease during 2012 and saw high infection rates of mosquitoes early in the summer, followed by a rapid increase in human cases. Looking back over previous years and case numbers, the researchers concluded that an unusually mild winter followed by rainfall patterns ideal for mosquito breeding in the spring (and a very hot summer--West Nile virus multiplies quickly in mosquitoes at higher temperatures) created ideal conditions for an outbreak.

So what's different about 2019? We had a relatively mild winter, with only three days at or below 28° F, and a wet spring--both conditions mosquitoes love. But the summer, at least by Dallas standards, has so far been cool.  Until this week, the DFW Airport weather station saw only two days over 100° F. By the end of July the area usually has experienced more than seven days over 100° F.

These graphs show 2019 mosquito abundance and Vector Index (V.I.) estimates compared to previous years. Although mosquito numbers are high this year, the V.I. has remained low for both Tarrant (=Fort Worth-top) and Dallas counties (bottom). In 2012 the V.I. exceeded the danger level of 0.5 for multiple weeks (blue dotted line). Source: Tarrant County Public Health and Dallas County Health and Human Services.

Predicting WNV

One of the tools used by health departments to predict disease risk for WNV is a statistic called the vector index (V.I.).  The V.I. is calculated weekly from mosquito trap data, and combines information on both average abundance of Culex quinquefasciatus (the main carrier of WNV) and disease incidence in the trapped mosquitoes.  A V.I. of 0.5 or higher for two or more weeks is considered a crisis indicator by some health officials.

The graphs shown here are provided by epidemiologists in Dallas and Fort Worth, and show both mosquito abundance and V.I. estimates for both counties. Despite higher mosquito numbers, the V.I. hasn't ventured above 0.1 for either Dallas or Tarrant counties this summer. Most of the season the V.I. has been closer to zero, hence less need for mosquito spraying and fewer people getting sick. In Dallas county this year there have been no human cases of WNV. Tarrant County (Fort Worth) reports only one case this year with a very low V.I., near zero most weeks (top graph).

According to statistics from the Texas Department of State Health Services, low WNV incidence seems to be true for the whole state this year with no reported human cases as of the end of July.  Harris County (Houston) also reports a light year for WNV, according to the acting director of Mosquito and Vector Control, Chris Fredregill.

Looking Ahead

With this week's string of 100° days in many areas will risk go up?  Certainly West Nile virus remains a threat to all of us through the end of the summer and into the fall; but this late in the season the chance of a major outbreak is probably low. On the other hand, hot weather favors the virus. It's no time to forget about mosquitoes. I expect Aedes mosquitoes (yellow fever mosquito and Asian tiger mosquito) to become more abundant after last weekend's rains.  This week is a good time to get out and dump standing water.  Although Aedes mosquitoes are not major disease risks, they cause most of the itchy mosquito bites we get during the day--and we don't want that.

Why Surveillance Reports?

Integrated pest management is just as relevant for mosquito control as it is for all other forms of pest control.  One of the principles of IPM is to base treatments on pest numbers.  Because mosquito monitoring is expensive and requires special expertise beyond what most PMPs possess, few companies monitor mosquito numbers or disease. However, high quality data may be available from your local health authorities, depending where you live. A pest management company can use this data to alert customers to times of higher disease risk and changes in mosquito abundance.

Every community's mosquito situation will be different.  If you are doing business in a larger metropolitan area, or a mosquito control district, you may have access to the kind of data shown here. To find out, contact your local or regional health department and ask if they provide reports of mosquito abundance and disease prevalence.

In Dallas, weekly reports may be obtained by emailing Epidemiology@dallascounty.org and requesting to subscribe to the weekly Arbovirus Surveillance Report. For Tarrant County, email RWHill2@tarrantcounty.com and request to receive the Arbovirus Surveillance Report Weekly.  Unfortunately, not all counties have equivalent reporting systems. Harris County provides mapping of areas with virus detection.  And the Texas Department of State Health Services provides weekly reports throughout the summer for the whole state.

An additional source of information for both PMPs and your customers is the Mosquito Safari website. At the Safari you can take a virtual tour of a field and a backyard and learn important facts about mosquitoes. 

If you need more intensive training, our Extension medical entomologist, Dr. Sonja Swiger, is offering classes this year for pesticide applicators wanting to prepare for their Public Health (Category 12) license.  In the fall she also offers several 3-day Master Vector Borne Disease Management Courses around the state.  To learn more, or to register, go to https://livestockvetento.tamu.edu/workshop-registration/ .

West Nile virus risk high in north Texas

Residual insecticides applied via backpack mist blower
sprayer can provide 3-4 weeks of mosquito control  during
times of peak mosquito activity.

July and August are typically the months of highest risk from west Nile virus, and true to form the past few weeks Dallas and Tarrant counties have seen a major increase in not only mosquitoes themselves, but infections within the mosquitoes.

After the major outbreak of WNV in 2012 in north Texas, some health officials made a decision to use something called the Vector Index (VI) as a form of threshold to ramp up mosquito control efforts.  Based on when human cases started to soar in 2012, and on suggestion from the CDC, a VI of 0.5 was determined to be a good threshold to consider going from ground based spray efforts to aerial spraying.

Two weeks ago the VI exceeded that threshold in both Dallas and Tarrant counties.  Both counties publish very interesting reports, available to the public, that include graphs to show  the latest mosquito counts and VI numbers.  To see the trends in Dallas and Fort Worth areas, check out the graphs below.  In the first graph, the Vector Index is the heavy red line.  Last week it exceeded the 0.50 threshold, although there was a drop this week. Note also the numbers of mosquitoes this summer (red bars) compared to average trap catches in 2012 (for the past four weeks, higher than 2012 averages shown by the blue bars). In Tarrant County (Fort Worth and surrounding communities) the VI (green line with triangle points) was likewise up last week, over 0.60 (new data is not yet published).  Note that the most recent 1-2 data points are preliminary estimates and may change as all the data is calculated.

These data are why there is discussion about aerial spraying this week.  In 2012 the number of human cases of WNV in Dallas county reached almost 400, and there were 19 deaths attributed to WNV. Serious business. Last week DCHHS issued a health advisory to the public, and this week the Dallas County commissioners voted to authorize the health department to prepare for possible aerial spray operations should conditions warrant.  

Where does all this leave the PMP who provides residential mosquito control service?  Municipal mosquito spraying actually complements, rather than replaces, mosquito control work on the ground done by professionals.  Aerial spraying generally provides better coverage of the tree canopy where WNV carrying mosquitoes (Culex quinquefasciatus in north Texas) live and mostly feed. Municipal truck mounted ULV sprays provide some control of lower level mosquitoes (Aedes mosquitoes that potentially transmit Zika and dengue fever, among other diseases), but they typically do not provide high level control in backyards or areas protected from spray coverage.  In that sense, the best control of Aedes mosquitoes is accomplished by your boots on the ground, looking for and treating or eliminating mosquito breeding sites, treating doorways, and treating shrubbery and other mosquito resting sites that are difficult to reach from the street.

As you and your technicians visit mosquito control customers this summer, keep in mind that you carry some of the most effective tools in the war against mosquitoes.  This summer, with Zika fears and WNV threats, what you do is more important than ever.